Barry Townvs
Haverfordwest County AFC
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 10/24/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barry Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 3-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barry Town 1-3 Haverfordwest County AFC
Original prediction
Barry Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 45.8% | 60.6% | 14.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.6% | 21.0% | -5.6 pts |
| Away | 3.27 | 27.6% | 18.4% | -9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.3–010%
Predicted outcome
Barry Town
Probability
60.6%
Model confidence
60.6%
Barry Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00