Barry Townvs
GAP Connah S Quay FC
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 9/26/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
GAP Connah S Quay FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barry Town 1-4 GAP Connah S Quay FC
Original prediction
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.37 | 26.7% | 26.8% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.2% | 22.9% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 1.91 | 47.1% | 50.4% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.91 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.1–37%
Predicted outcome
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Probability
50.4%
Model confidence
50.4%
GAP Connah S Quay FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80