Barry Townvs
Ammanford AFC
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 9/15/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barry Town · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-0 (14%), 3-0 (13%), 5-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barry Town 2-2 Ammanford AFC
Original prediction
Barry Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.12 | 80.3% | 76.2% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw | 6.70 | 13.4% | 13.6% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 14.44 | 6.2% | 10.1% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 5.70 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–014%
- 2.3–013%
- 3.5–013%
Predicted outcome
Barry Town
Probability
76.2%
Model confidence
76.2%
Barry Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20
GF 1 · GA 15 · avg 0.20/3.00