Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barrow · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Barrow are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Tranmere are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (DDLDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Barrow hold a 7.7-point power-rating edge (37.2 v 29.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.6% in the EFL Trophy, while Barrow holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Barrow
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Barrow has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00