Barrowvs
Sutton Utd
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sutton Utd · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barrow 3-0 Sutton Utd
Original prediction
Sutton Utd
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 42.5% | 28.8% | -13.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.2% | 26.2% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 30.3% | 45.0% | 14.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Sutton Utd
Probability
45.0%
Model confidence
45.0%
Sutton Utd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60