Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Barrow are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Bolton are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolton hold a 51.3-point power-rating edge (37.2 v 88.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 68.5% in the EFL Trophy, while Bolton holds the strongest overall chance at 69% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 71% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bolton
Probability
68.5%
Model confidence
68.5%
Bolton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00