GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 11/12/2024, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Barrow · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Barrow are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDDLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Aston Villa U21 are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLD), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Barrow hold a 7.7-point power-rating edge (37.2 v 29.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.6% in the EFL Trophy, while Barrow holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 73% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Barrow

Probability

41.6%

Model confidence

41.6%

Barrow has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

BarrowDDDLL

GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 0/5
Aston Villa U21DWLLD

GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40

BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
BarrowAston Villa U21
33.3Attack66.7
33.3Defence0.0
33.3Form11.1
37.2Power29.5
2.04xG1.78
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