Barrowvs
Aldershot Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aldershot Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barrow 1-0 Aldershot Town
Original prediction
Aldershot Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 50.8% | 31.6% | -19.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 24.9% | 26.8% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.77 | 24.2% | 41.7% | 17.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Aldershot Town
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Aldershot Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80