Barravs
Santa Catarina
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Santa Catarina · 10/23/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barra · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barra 3-0 Santa Catarina
Original prediction
Barra
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 39.8% | 41.2% | 1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.0% | 27.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 32.3% | 30.9% | -1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Barra
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Barra has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BarraLDLDD
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Santa CatarinaLLLWD
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
BarraSanta Catarina
55.6Attack33.3
27.8Defence26.7
22.2Form26.7
38.2Power32.5
2.08xG1.39