Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barnsley · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barnsley 1-5 Stevenage
Original prediction
Barnsley
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 43.8% | 42.7% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 28.2% | 28.7% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.32 | 28.1% | 28.6% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Barnsley
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
Barnsley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BarnsleyWWWDL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
StevenageDDLLD
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BarnsleyStevenage
33.3Attack33.3
77.8Defence58.3
44.4Form25.0
53.1Power42.1
1.31xG0.91