GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/26/2023, 6:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Barnsley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

Barnsley are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Manchester City U21 are 0W-1D-0L in their last 1 (D), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 6 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Barnsley hold a 24.9-point power-rating edge (47.9 v 23.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 56.7% in the EFL Trophy, while Barnsley holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 70% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Barnsley

Probability

56.7%

Model confidence

56.7%

Barnsley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

BarnsleyWLWWW

GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Manchester City U21D

GF 2 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/2.00

BTTS 1/1O2.5 1/1
BarnsleyManchester City U21
58.3Attack33.3
33.3Defence11.1
50.0Form11.1
47.9Power23.1
2.50xG1.43
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