Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barnsley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Barnsley are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDD), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Lincoln are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLWL), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Lincoln hold a 5.6-point power-rating edge (47.9 v 53.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.5% in the EFL Trophy, while Barnsley holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Barnsley
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Barnsley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 1 · GA 5 · avg 0.20/1.00