Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leicester · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barnsley 1-1 Leicester
Original prediction
Leicester
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.15 | 29.5% | 33.4% | 3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 25.0% | 25.6% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.04 | 45.5% | 41.1% | -4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.72 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Leicester
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Leicester has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BarnsleyDLLWW
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
LeicesterWLWDL
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BarnsleyLeicester
33.3Attack44.4
38.9Defence44.4
38.9Form44.4
39.4Power46.2
1.29xG1.42