Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barnsley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Barnsley are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Grimsby are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (WDDDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Barnsley hold an 18.5-point power-rating edge (47.9 v 29.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.4% in the EFL Trophy, while Barnsley holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 70% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Barnsley
Probability
51.4%
Model confidence
51.4%
Barnsley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80