Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Doncaster · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Barnsley are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Doncaster are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Doncaster hold an 11.8-point power-rating edge (47.9 v 59.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.6% in the EFL Trophy, while Doncaster holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Doncaster
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Doncaster has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80