Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Blackpool · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barnsley 2-1 Blackpool
Original prediction
Blackpool
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 43.0% | 34.0% | -9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.6% | 27.6% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.07 | 30.4% | 38.4% | 8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Blackpool
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Blackpool has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BarnsleyWWDLD
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BlackpoolWLWDW
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BarnsleyBlackpool
33.3Attack77.8
77.8Defence77.8
44.4Form77.8
53.1Power76.6
1.07xG1.37