Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barletta · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barletta 1-4 Potenza
Original prediction
Barletta
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.51 | 36.0% | 38.3% | 2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.6% | 30.1% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.48 | 36.5% | 31.6% | -4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Barletta
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Barletta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BarlettaDDLDW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PotenzaWDLWD
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BarlettaPotenza
50.0Attack33.3
50.0Defence58.8
50.0Form37.7
50.0Power45.1
1.24xG0.82