Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cavese · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barletta 1-1 Cavese
Original prediction
Cavese
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.34 | 38.9% | 32.9% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 30.4% | 29.3% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.95 | 30.8% | 37.8% | 7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.99 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Cavese
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Cavese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BarlettaLLDDL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CaveseWWLLD
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BarlettaCavese
38.1Attack66.7
47.6Defence47.6
28.6Form52.4
39.3Power56.5
1.25xG1.76