Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barletta · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barletta 3-0 Bari
Original prediction
Barletta
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.05 | 29.6% | 35.8% | 6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 29.6% | 29.3% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.22 | 40.8% | 34.9% | -5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Barletta
Probability
35.8%
Model confidence
35.8%
Barletta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BarlettaDL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/2.50
BTTS 2/2O2.5 2/2
BariWWDDW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
BarlettaBari
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.33xG1.13