Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bari · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bari 0-0 Potenza
Original prediction
Bari
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 48.2% | 42.5% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 27.8% | 29.6% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.78 | 24.0% | 27.9% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.26 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Bari
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Bari has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BariWWDLW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
PotenzaLWDWW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BariPotenza
50.0Attack33.3
50.0Defence58.8
50.0Form37.7
50.0Power45.1
1.24xG0.82