Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bari · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Bari 1-0 Crotone, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Bari 0-0 Crotone
Original prediction
Bari
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 09:34 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 54.1% | 60.2% | 6.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 26.4% | 24.1% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 4.66 | 19.5% | 15.7% | -3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.44 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.1 pts
Projected Score
Bari 1–0 Crotone
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Bari
Probability
60.2%
Model confidence
60.2%
Bari has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BariWLWWD
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CrotoneLLWDL
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BariCrotone
41.7Attack37.0
75.0Defence44.4
66.7Form22.2
62.4Power37.6
1.62xG0.56