Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bari · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bari 1-0 Cosenza
Original prediction
Bari
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 68.5% | 48.4% | -20.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.34 | 20.8% | 27.2% | 6.3 pts |
| Away | 8.50 | 10.6% | 24.4% | 13.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Bari
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
48.4%
Bari has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BariWDWWD
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CosenzaDLDLL
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BariCosenza
50.0Attack0.0
50.0Defence0.0
50.0Form0.0
50.0Power7.0
1.63xG0.97