Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bari · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Bari are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Casarano are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 52.0 against 53.0. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.2% in the Coppa Italia Serie C, while Bari holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bari
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
14.2%
Bari has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80