Barendrechtvs
AFC Amsterdam
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Tweede Divisie · 10/17/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barendrecht · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barendrecht 4-1 AFC Amsterdam
Original prediction
Barendrecht
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 37.6% | 41.8% | 4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 24.6% | 22.0% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.37 | 37.9% | 36.3% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Barendrecht
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Barendrecht has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00