Barcelonavs
Real Madrid
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 10/25/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barcelona · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barcelona 1-2 Real Madrid
Original prediction
Barcelona
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 59.9% | 47.6% | -12.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.70 | 16.8% | 23.0% | 6.2 pts |
| Away | 4.10 | 23.3% | 29.4% | 6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Barcelona
Probability
47.6%
Model confidence
47.6%
Barcelona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 17 · GA 8 · avg 3.40/1.60
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40