Barcelonavs
Rayo Vallecano
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 8/31/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barcelona · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barcelona 5-2 Rayo Vallecano
Original prediction
Barcelona
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.10 | 87.2% | 59.9% | -27.3 pts |
| Draw | 11.10 | 8.6% | 21.3% | 12.7 pts |
| Away | 23.17 | 4.1% | 18.8% | 14.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Barcelona
Probability
59.9%
Model confidence
59.9%
Barcelona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00