Barcelonavs
Racing Santander
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/16/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barcelona · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barcelona 7-2 Racing Santander
Original prediction
Barcelona
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.08 | 88.9% | 68.2% | -20.8 pts |
| Draw | 13.24 | 7.2% | 17.2% | 10.0 pts |
| Away | 24.82 | 3.9% | 14.6% | 10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Barcelona
Probability
68.2%
Model confidence
68.2%
Barcelona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 21 · GA 5 · avg 4.20/1.00
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80