Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barcelona · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Barcelona 2-0 Getafe, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Barcelona 3-0 Getafe
Original prediction
Barcelona
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.09 | 87.9% | 70.7% | -17.2 pts |
| Draw | 11.54 | 8.3% | 18.1% | 9.8 pts |
| Away | 25.05 | 3.8% | 11.2% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.2 pts
Projected Score
Barcelona 2–0 Getafe
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Barcelona
Probability
70.7%
Model confidence
70.7%
Barcelona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BarcelonaWWWWW
GF 24 · GA 6 · avg 4.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
GetafeWLDDL
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
BarcelonaGetafe
100.0Attack19.0
66.7Defence66.7
100.0Form38.1
88.9Power44.1
1.93xG0.60