Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barcelona · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barcelona 5-1 Feyenoord
Original prediction
Barcelona
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.08 | 88.8% | 65.9% | -22.9 pts |
| Draw | 12.62 | 7.6% | 17.4% | 9.8 pts |
| Away | 26.41 | 3.6% | 16.6% | 13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Barcelona
Probability
65.9%
Model confidence
65.9%
Barcelona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BarcelonaWWWWW
GF 19 · GA 3 · avg 3.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
FeyenoordWDWDW
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BarcelonaFeyenoord
66.7Attack50.0
53.3Defence44.4
63.3Form33.3
61.3Power43.8
2.44xG1.22