Barcelonavs
Athletic Club
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 8/27/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barcelona · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barcelona 2-0 Athletic Club
Original prediction
Barcelona
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.24 | 76.8% | 55.5% | -21.3 pts |
| Draw | 6.60 | 14.4% | 23.4% | 9.0 pts |
| Away | 10.94 | 8.7% | 21.0% | 12.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Barcelona
Probability
55.5%
Model confidence
55.5%
Barcelona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00