Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manresa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barbastro 0-0 Manresa
Original prediction
Manresa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 41.0% | 29.3% | -11.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.5% | 28.2% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.05 | 29.4% | 42.4% | 13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.04 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Manresa
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Manresa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BarbastroLDDLD
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ManresaDWLLW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BarbastroManresa
33.3Attack61.1
61.1Defence72.2
33.3Form55.6
45.6Power62.1
0.81xG1.30