Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Barbastro 0-0 Girona II, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Barbastro 4-3 Girona II
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.53 | 35.2% | 35.1% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.83 | 31.5% | 33.1% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.67 | 33.4% | 31.8% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Projected Score
Barbastro 0–0 Girona II
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.1%
Model confidence
35.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BarbastroLWWWW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Girona IILWLWD
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BarbastroGirona II
27.5Attack50.0
72.5Defence50.0
46.1Form50.0
50.5Power50.0
0.79xG0.68