Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barbados · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barbados 2-0 St. Lucia
Original prediction
Barbados
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.22 | 28.3% | 36.7% | 8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.3% | 27.0% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.05 | 44.4% | 36.3% | -8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Barbados
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Barbados has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BarbadosDDDDD
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
St. LuciaNo completed matches
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
BTTS 0/0O2.5 0/0
BarbadosSt. Lucia
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.94xG1.66