Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barbados · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barbados 4-1 Bermuda
Original prediction
Barbados
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 50.5% | 51.6% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.94 | 23.1% | 23.7% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.43 | 26.5% | 24.8% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Barbados
Probability
51.6%
Model confidence
51.6%
Barbados has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BarbadosDWDDL
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BermudaLLLLL
GF 4 · GA 18 · avg 0.80/3.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BarbadosBermuda
66.7Attack50.0
66.7Defence0.0
66.7Form0.0
68.0Power20.5
2.45xG1.23