Barakaldovs
Real Avilés
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/27/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barakaldo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Barakaldo 1-0 Real Avilés, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Barakaldo 3-3 Real Avilés
Original prediction
Barakaldo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 48.7% | 47.0% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 26.9% | 28.3% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.70 | 24.4% | 24.7% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.37 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Projected Score
Barakaldo 1–0 Real Avilés
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Barakaldo
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
47.0%
Barakaldo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BarakaldoLWLDL
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Real AvilésDWLLW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BarakaldoReal Avilés
44.7Attack33.3
66.7Defence33.3
50.9Form0.0
55.2Power23.7
1.45xG0.70