Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mirandes · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barakaldo 2-0 Mirandes
Original prediction
Mirandes
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 39.6% | 28.3% | -11.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 29.1% | 27.4% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.91 | 31.4% | 44.4% | 13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Mirandes
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Mirandes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BarakaldoLDDLW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
MirandesDLWDW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BarakaldoMirandes
28.6Attack55.6
52.4Defence61.1
28.6Form61.1
39.3Power61.7
0.83xG1.41