Barakaldovs
Extremadura 1924
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/11/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barakaldo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Barakaldo 1-0 Extremadura 1924, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Barakaldo 1-0 Extremadura 1924
Original prediction
Barakaldo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 46.2% | 43.5% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.7% | 29.6% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.62 | 25.1% | 26.9% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.96 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Projected Score
Barakaldo 1–0 Extremadura 1924
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Barakaldo
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Barakaldo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40