Barakaldovs
Arenas Getxo
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/3/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barakaldo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Barakaldo 1-1 Arenas Getxo
Original prediction
Barakaldo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.53 | 59.5% | 45.5% | -14.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.94 | 23.1% | 27.4% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 5.24 | 17.4% | 27.1% | 9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.94 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Barakaldo
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Barakaldo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60