Copa RioCopa Rio
Wednesday, 22 July 2026Last updated 12:33
Bangu

Bangu

Home
L
11
Full time
Olaria

Olaria

Away
W
Estádio Moça Bonita
GoalVio prediction
43% confidence
Olaria(43%)
Most likely exact score0-1
Win probability
Bangu
29%
Draw
28%
Olaria
43%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Bangu
9
Olaria
73
Defence
Bangu
27
Olaria
91
Momentum
Bangu
0
Olaria
100
Danger (xG)
Bangu
0.00
Olaria
1.80
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Bangu)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Olaria)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Bangu)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Olaria)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
BanguBangu
L
OlariaOlaria
WW

Probability breakdown

43% confidence
Bangu29%
Draw28%
Olaria43%

Olaria leads with 43% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Bangu head into this in Copa Rio fixture at Estádio Moça Bonita in mixed form (L), while Olaria arrive in mixed form (W). Bangu have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 100% for Olaria over 1 games.

Tactically, Olaria hold the edge. Their strong attack (73/100) is pitted against a vulnerable Bangu defence (27/100), while Bangu's attack faces a watertight Olaria backline. The model flags this as a potential away-team performance.

Bangu have limited home data in the engine at this stage. Olaria have limited away data in the engine at this stage.

Olaria have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The GoalVio engine projects Olaria to win with 43% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 0-1. Win probabilities: Bangu 2886%, Draw 2790%, Olaria 4324%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Bangu 0Draws 01 Olaria
Avg goals: 2.0
15 Jul 2026
Bangu
L02
Olaria

Recent form

Bangu

Bangu

L
@ Olaria
15 Jul 2026
02
Olaria

Olaria

W
vs Bangu
15 Jul 2026
20
W
vs Pérolas Negras
16 May 2026
20

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Bangu vs Olaria?

GoalVio's model predicts Olaria to win with 43% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Bangu vs Olaria?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.

Will both teams score in Bangu vs Olaria?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bangu vs Olaria?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more