Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bangor · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bangor 3-1 Portadown
Original prediction
Bangor
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.66 | 33.8% | 37.4% | 3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 27.6% | 26.4% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.33 | 38.6% | 36.3% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Bangor
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Bangor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BangorLDLDL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PortadownDLLLL
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BangorPortadown
19.0Attack19.0
23.8Defence33.3
9.5Form4.8
21.8Power23.2
1.32xG1.25