Bangorvs
Dungannon Swifts
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · League Cup · 10/20/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dungannon Swifts · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bangor 1-2 Dungannon Swifts
Original prediction
Dungannon Swifts
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.83 | 23.6% | 35.6% | 12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 25.4% | 26.4% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.77 | 51.1% | 38.1% | -13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Dungannon Swifts
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Dungannon Swifts has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00