Bangorvs
Ballymena United
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Premiership · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ballymena United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bangor 2-2 Ballymena United
Original prediction
Ballymena United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.00 | 22.7% | 27.6% | 4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.9% | 26.2% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.74 | 52.3% | 46.2% | -6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.65 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Ballymena United
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
Ballymena United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40