Bangkokvs
Nong Bua Pitchaya
COMPLETEDThailand · FA Cup · 10/21/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bangkok · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bangkok 0-2 Nong Bua Pitchaya
Original prediction
Bangkok
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 9 October 2026 at 17:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.83 | 31.8% | 37.9% | 6.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.7% | 26.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.17 | 41.5% | 35.8% | -5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Bangkok
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Bangkok has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BangkokDWWLW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Nong Bua PitchayaLWDWD
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BangkokNong Bua Pitchaya
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
2.21xG1.88