Bangkok Unitedvs
BG Pathum United
COMPLETEDThailand · Thai League 1 · 9/20/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bangkok United · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bangkok United 3-2 BG Pathum United
Original prediction
Bangkok United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 46.0% | 40.0% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 27.8% | 27.9% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.42 | 26.2% | 32.1% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.95 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Bangkok United
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Bangkok United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80