Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zenit · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Baltika 2-3 Zenit
Original prediction
Zenit
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.33 | 21.9% | 31.1% | 9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.8% | 27.9% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 1.88 | 50.4% | 41.0% | -9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.88 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Zenit
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Zenit has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BaltikaDLDWD
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ZenitWLWWL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BaltikaZenit
55.6Attack100.0
66.7Defence100.0
66.7Form100.0
64.7Power98.0
1.25xG1.38