Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Baltika · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Baltika 0-1 Lokomotiv
Original prediction
Baltika
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.04 | 46.5% | 46.0% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 28.3% | 28.1% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.76 | 25.2% | 25.9% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Baltika
Probability
46.0%
Model confidence
46.0%
Baltika has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BaltikaDWDDL
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LokomotivDLLLD
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
BaltikaLokomotiv
55.6Attack25.0
66.7Defence66.7
66.7Form25.0
64.7Power42.1
1.44xG0.85