Baltika IIvs
Cherepovets
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 2 · 9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Baltika II · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 3-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Baltika II 1-4 Cherepovets
Original prediction
Baltika II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 60.4% | 72.4% | 12.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.30 | 21.2% | 16.3% | -4.9 pts |
| Away | 4.94 | 18.4% | 11.3% | -7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.3–011%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Baltika II
Probability
72.4%
Model confidence
72.4%
Baltika II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00