Ballymena Unitedvs
Portadown
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Premiership · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ballymena United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ballymena United 2-0 Portadown
Original prediction
Ballymena United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 54.7% | 57.5% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.0% | 22.9% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 4.25 | 21.2% | 19.6% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Ballymena United
Probability
57.5%
Model confidence
57.5%
Ballymena United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40