Ballymena Unitedvs
Crusaders FC
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Premiership · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ballymena United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ballymena United 2-1 Crusaders FC
Original prediction
Ballymena United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 56.4% | 58.5% | 2.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.02 | 22.6% | 20.4% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 4.31 | 21.0% | 21.1% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Ballymena United
Probability
58.5%
Model confidence
58.5%
Ballymena United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80