GGOALVIO

World · UEFA Champions League · 7/11/2023, 6:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Ludogorets · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Ballkani are 1W-1D-0L in their last 2 (DW), averaging 3.50 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Ludogorets are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDD), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 7 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Ludogorets hold a 5.2-point power-rating edge (40.7 v 45.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.8% in the UEFA Champions League, while Ludogorets holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Ludogorets

Probability

35.8%

Model confidence

35.8%

Ludogorets has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

BallkaniDW

GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 3.50/2.00

BTTS 2/2O2.5 2/2
LudogoretsWWWDD

GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BallkaniLudogorets
33.3Attack50.0
33.3Defence58.3
50.0Form33.3
40.7Power45.9
1.40xG1.46
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